A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
